With today's deadline, March 1, now arrived the US and China have reportedly started to sketch out the broad outlines of a deal, although the tough work lies ahead.

 

Securing some rather minor concessions from China to purchase more soybeans from the US was the easy part, but forcing sweeping changes to its trade practices - the so-called structural reforms - will be extremely difficult, if not unobtainable.

 

But Trump can ill-afford an economic downturn, which would be much more likely if he continues with his trade war. He surely recognises this, despite his aggressive position towards China last year.

 

Trump proudly claimed that he was a ‘tariff man' last year, but the prospect of increasing tariffs from 10 to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods appears to be too much even for him to stomach.

 

In fact, Trump has become much more dovish on the trade war than his lead negotiator, which, according to Bloomberg, has created cracks in their relationship. People come and go in the Trump orbit, and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is now in the hot seat.

 

Overnight, the WTI crude oil price was $57.23 per barrel.

 

In softer commodities, cocoa decreased $66 per tonne or 2.86% to $2238/t yesterday from the $2304 in the previous trading session, tradingeconomics.com reported. Historically, cocoa reached an all-time high of $4361.58/t in July of 1977 and a record low of $211/t in July of 1965.

 

Coffee decreased 0.50c per pound or 0.52% to 95.20c/lb yesterday from 95.70c/lb in the previous trading session, tradingeconomics.com reported. Historically, coffee reached an all-time high of 339.86c/lb in April of 1977 and a record low of 42.50c/lb in October of 2001.