Scotiabank's gold forecast, however, sees a move back above the $1800 level to average $1850 in 2022 but decline to $1700 in 2023.

 

Forecasts for the gold price outlook next year from different analysts vary, based on how they expect the market to respond to inflation and central bank policy, writes Nicole Willing for capital.com. 

 

Technical analysis from brokerage firm Zaner on 8 December noted that "key points on the upside in gold are the 200-day moving average at $1796.25 and then again at $1800". 

 

But, "even though we leave the bull camp with a minor edge, the precious metals markets lack a definitive bullish fundamental storyline and lack upside momentum. Furthermore, recent gains have been forged on extremely low trading volume and almost no change in open interest," the company's analysts wrote in a note to clients. 

 

Analysts at Australian bank ANZ expect gold to find support in the first half of next year but undergo downward pressure later in the year when the Fed is expected to raise interest rates.

 

They wrote in their latest commodity report: "As ultra-loose monetary policy nears an end and stimulus starts to shrink, support for the precious metals sector [is] likely to wane in 2022. Despite more than a year of US Federal Reserve discussions around tapering, higher inflation and negative real interest rates have protected the downside of gold prices.

 

"On the fundamentals side, a strong rebound in physical demand mitigated heavy liquidation in exchange-traded fund holdings this year. We estimate demand losses will be limited at 390t due to strong physical demand offtake in 2021 In 2022, physical demand is likely to be constructive with jewellery demand growing by 5% year-on-year to 1920t and central bank purchases staying in the range of 480-500t."