Running of the gas bulls

PREDICTIONS of a 50% increase in imports within the Asia Pacific region by 2040 has the gas bulls excited.
Running of the gas bulls Running of the gas bulls Running of the gas bulls Running of the gas bulls Running of the gas bulls

PNG LNG operator ExxonMobil believes the Asia Pacific, already the world's largest oil importing region, made the prediction as domestic production stayed steady and demand rose.

Gas is the biggest winner in Exxon's Outlook for Energy report issued this week, which said heavy industry was going to use less oil through 2040 along with coal as the world becomes less carbon-intense - in fact, energy-related emissions will peak by 2030.

On the upside for oil, Exxon said while the industrial sector's oil use was flat, its use as a chemical feedstock was growing.

It forecast global energy demand to soar 25% between 2014 and 2040 as the world population added about 2 billion, with developing economies to deliver most of the energy demand growth, with per capita income increases of 135% in those countries.

Exxon expects natural gas to meet about 40% of global energy growth needs over the forecast period as demand for the fuel soars by half.

Meanwhile nuclear and renewables including bio-energy, hydro, geothermal, wind and solar could account for nearly 40% of demand growth.

By 2040, Exxon expects nuclear and those renewable sources to constitute nearly 25% of supplies, of which nuclear alone will soak up about a third.

As with most things, China will shape industrial energy demand, which rose 2.3% a year as the Asian giant's industry boomed from 2000-2014, during which time it accounted for more than half the growth in demand.

However, things are changing, with Exxon forecasting global demand averaging 1% a year from 2014-2040 as China "moderates" and India takes the lead in industrial demand and the US re-emerges in this area too.

Exxon forecasts OECD emissions to fall by about 20% by 2040 as India surpasses China as the world's most populous nation with 1.6 people, with the two Asian giants to account for nearly half of global energy demand growth.


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