Gloomy outlook for energy

WITH the dramatic title of 'radical disruption: carbon-constrained scenario 2017', the latest report sees energy production moving to gas and renewables
Gloomy outlook for energy Gloomy outlook for energy Gloomy outlook for energy Gloomy outlook for energy Gloomy outlook for energy

Staff Reporter

The report, which was compiled in conjunction with GTM Research, concludes that the globally "carbon-constrained scenario envisages slowing energy demand growth".
Hydrocarbon demand will be redistributed from coal to gas, and the role of renewables will be boosted with more than $4 trillion in investment.
"Global greenhouse gas emissions will plateau to the early 2020s and then decline at an accelerating rate. The relatively unambitious nationally determined contributions trajectory described by the Paris Agreement will be exceeded, but the more aggressive ambition of the 2°C world looks out of reach.
"While we consider a 2°C world impossible to achieve given current technology, continued pressure to decarbonise would inevitably drive a future more akin to the carbon-constrained scenario than the energy system we have today," the report said.
The report notes that, momentum is building within business to adapt to a changing world.
"At ExxonMobil's annual general meeting on May 31, shareholders backed by 62% a resolution put forward by activist investors to force the company to declare how it will prepare for a lower-carbon future.
"The vote marks a change in strategic direction for shareholders, who are now demanding transparency over the financial impacts of climate threats. With ExxonMobil on board, pressure is likely to mount on other companies to disclose their exposure.
"If (as seems likely) portfolio risks are deemed negative, then investors may ramp up pressure further, and push companies into adaptation strategies such as divesting carbon-intensive production, focusing on gas through the medium term, or ultimately moving into renewable energy. 
"Once oil demand peaks, stranded assets become a reality. Investor perceptions of climate-related risks - even risks which are unlikely to materialise - may well be enough to change the direction of long-established multinational oil and gas companies," the report concludes.




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